Market Trend
US indices are pointing higher ahead of Friday’s open, driven by a rebound in semiconductors and banking stocks:
- S&P 500: +0.3%
- Dow Jones: +0.1%
- Nasdaq: +0.6%
All three indices closed in the green on Thursday, ending a two-day losing streak.
Today's Catalysts
Semiconductors in Force
- US-Taiwan Trade Agreement: Taiwanese tech companies will invest $250 billion in the US.
- TSMC: Quarterly results exceeded expectations, outlook is optimistic. +1.1% pre-market.
- ASML: +1.2%
- Nvidia (NVDA): +0.9%
Strong Banks
- Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) posted Q4 earnings above expectations on Thursday.
- GS: +0.4% pre-market after +4.6% yesterday
- MS: +0.5% after +5.8%
- Expected results this morning: PNC, State Street, M&T Bank, Regions Financial
Macroeconomy
- Industrial production (December) at 9:15 am (US Eastern)
- Housing Market Index (January) at 10:00 am
- Fed members speaking:
- Michelle Bowman (11:00 am)
- Susan Collins (10:50 am)
- Philip Jefferson (3:30 pm)
- Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) warns of risks to the Fed’s independence.
- Michael Barr denounces the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell as an attack on the institution.
Commodities & Cryptos
- WTI: +1.2% at $59.90
- Gold: -0.4% at $4,605
- Bitcoin: +0.1% at $95,328
To Watch
Energy
- Constellation Energy (CEG): +2.4%
➤ Gains after White House directive announcement for an emergency energy tender.
Defense
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): +8.1%
➤ Selected for the US Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program.
Corporate & Markets
- Micron (MU): +4%
➤ Executive purchased shares for $7.8M. - Ralph Lauren (RL): +1.7%
➤ César Conde (NBCUniversal) appointed to the board of directors. - Mosaic (MOS): -6.5%
➤ Drop in fertilizer demand in North America for Q4. - Goldman Sachs explores prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) and considers venturing into this still minimally regulated universe.
Analyst Recommendations
Downgrades
- Devon Energy: Scotiabank, target reduced to $41
- HP: Barclays, target lowered to $18
- Iridium: Morgan Stanley, target lowered to $24
- Shift4 Payments: Deutsche Bank, target at $65
- Tractor Supply: Truist, target at $55
Upgrades / Target increases
- Rocket Lab: Morgan Stanley, target raised to $105
- Yeti: KeyBanc, target at $57
- Analog Devices: Oppenheimer, target at $350
- Applied Materials: KeyBanc, target at $380
- Intel: TD Cowen, target at $50
- Macom: TD Cowen, target at $245
- MKS Inc.: KeyBanc, target at $250
Other Adjustments
- Netflix: target reduced to $110
- Texas Pacific Land: target reduced to $350
- Fiserv: B Riley, target reduced to $76
- Penumbra: target raised to $374
Today’s Calendar
9:15 am: Industrial production (Dec.)
10:00 am: Housing Market Index (Jan.)
Fed speakers:
- Susan Collins (10:50 am)
- Michelle Bowman (11:00 am)
- Philip Jefferson (3:30 pm)
To Remember
The markets are rebounding thanks to strong semiconductors and solid banking results. Investors are closely watching today’s macro releases and the many speeches by Fed members.
